{"id":13236,"date":"2019-05-14T21:00:36","date_gmt":"2019-05-14T15:30:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/trial.indiaeconomyandbusiness.com\/?p=13236"},"modified":"2024-02-01T22:45:35","modified_gmt":"2024-02-01T17:15:35","slug":"index-of-industrial-production-iip-fy19-performance-analysis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.indiaeconomyandbusiness.com\/is\/index-of-industrial-production-iip-fy19-performance-analysis\/","title":{"rendered":"Index of Industrial Production (IIP) – FY19 Performance Analysis"},"content":{"rendered":"

Index of Industrial Production (IIP) recorded growth of 3.6% for the year ended March\u201919 as per the data released by MOSPI last week. The growth is markedly lower than average growth of 4.5% in the last two years. More worryingly, the performance for the last quarter has sharply come down to 0.5% from over 5% in the first half of the year. So, what is happening to the economy? Has it lost the momentum again? Here is a brief look.<\/p>\n

IIP comprises of Manufacturing (weight – 78%), Mining (14%) and Electricity (8%). Manufacturing, itself, is a large segment comprising of 22 subgroups, major ones being basic metals (12.8%), petroleum products, chemical products, food products and Pharma. Out of these five plus mining and electricity accounting for over half of IIP, only food products recorded a healthy growth of 12% and electricity was moderate at 5.2%. All others managed growth of only 2-3%, implying that the stress is widely spread.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Use-based category<\/td>\nWeight<\/td>\nFY13<\/td>\nFY14<\/td>\nFY15<\/td>\nFY16<\/td>\nFY17<\/td>\nFY18<\/td>\nFY19<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Primary goods<\/td>\n34.0<\/td>\n0.5<\/td>\n2.3<\/td>\n3.8<\/td>\n5.0<\/td>\n4.9<\/td>\n3.7<\/td>\n3.5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Capital goods<\/td>\n8.2<\/td>\n0.3<\/td>\n-3.7<\/td>\n-1.1<\/td>\n3.0<\/td>\n3.2<\/td>\n4.0<\/td>\n2.8<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Intermediate goods<\/td>\n17.2<\/td>\n5.1<\/td>\n4.6<\/td>\n6.1<\/td>\n1.5<\/td>\n3.3<\/td>\n2.3<\/td>\n-0.6<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Infrastructure\/ construction goods<\/td>\n12.3<\/td>\n5.4<\/td>\n5.7<\/td>\n5.0<\/td>\n2.8<\/td>\n3.9<\/td>\n5.6<\/td>\n7.5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Consumer durables<\/td>\n12.8<\/td>\n4.9<\/td>\n5.6<\/td>\n4.0<\/td>\n3.4<\/td>\n2.9<\/td>\n0.8<\/td>\n5.3<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Consumer non-durables<\/td>\n15.3<\/td>\n6.1<\/td>\n3.7<\/td>\n3.8<\/td>\n2.6<\/td>\n7.9<\/td>\n10.6<\/td>\n3.8<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
IIP<\/td>\n100.0<\/td>\n3.3<\/td>\n3.3<\/td>\n4.0<\/td>\n3.3<\/td>\n4.6<\/td>\n4.4<\/td>\n3.6<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Performance of metals is quite surprising as the sector had been doing reasonably well after the stress around 2015-16. Closer look reveals that its growth has declined to -2.5% in Q4\u201919 from about 3.5% in the first half. Sudden demand slowdown in user industries such as automobiles and global slowdown affecting the exports market appears to be the reason for the same. Exports slowdown has affected petroleum product group also which recorded a decline of as much as 4.7% in Q4. It may be noted that India has excess petroleum refining capacity and a good part of petroleum product is exported. For Pharma also, the performance decline is quite sharp with growth of barely 1.4% in FY19, down from as high as 25% for two consecutive years.<\/p>\n

Interestingly, growth rate of manufacture of food products is significantly higher than its six years average of 3% and the best of all manufacturing groups. The segment has probably gained cost advantage from low food input prices, thereby, managing higher sales.<\/p>\n

IIP is also classified based on user groups into Primary goods, Capital goods, Intermediate goods, Infrastructure\/construction goods, consumer durable and consumer non-durables. The variation in their performance is best evident when analyzed on quarterly basis. While in the first half, four of these six groups had recorded growth rate of over 5%, the performance reversed sharply in the last quarter with three of them showing a decline. The reversal is most evident for capital goods from 7.6% in first half to -7.1% in Q4. Similarly, consumer durables have reversed from 8.1% growth in first half to -0.6% in Q4 whereas intermediate goods have declined by 3.6% against 1.3%. Intermediate goods act as input to other groups and its slowdown point to the possibility of further slowdown in other groups. Except for infrastructure group which grew at 7.5%, all other groups have slowed down sharply. Infrastructure growth was aided by government expenditure on highways and other construction projects.<\/p>\n

While growth rate is certainly worrying, it is still not entrenched and can be revived through effective government intervention. Growth rate is only marginally lower than previous six years\u2019 average of 3.8%. Further, there appears to be some shift from consumption to investment driven sectors as evident form increase in growth of infrastructure sector against decline in consumer durables. If this trend persists, this could help in longer term capacity building and productivity enhancement.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Index of Industrial Production (IIP) recorded growth of 3.6% for the year ended March\u201919 as per the data released by MOSPI last week. The growth is markedly lower than average growth of 4.5% in the last two years. More worryingly, the performance for the last quarter has sharply come down to 0.5% from over 5% […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":13241,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[857],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-13236","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","membership-content","access-restricted"],"yoast_head":"\nIndex of Industrial Production (IIP) - FY19 Performance Analysis - Indian Economy & Business Analysis<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.indiaeconomyandbusiness.com\/is\/index-of-industrial-production-iip-fy19-performance-analysis\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Index of Industrial Production (IIP) - FY19 Performance Analysis - Indian Economy & Business Analysis\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Index of Industrial Production (IIP) recorded growth of 3.6% for the year ended March\u201919 as per the data released by MOSPI last week. 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