{"id":14094,"date":"2020-04-06T20:27:20","date_gmt":"2020-04-06T14:57:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/trial.indiaeconomyandbusiness.com\/?p=14094"},"modified":"2022-07-25T19:11:53","modified_gmt":"2022-07-25T13:41:53","slug":"covid-19-estimating-the-impact-of-gdp","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.indiaeconomyandbusiness.com\/is\/covid-19-estimating-the-impact-of-gdp\/","title":{"rendered":"Covid-19 – Estimating the Impact on GDP"},"content":{"rendered":"

The lockdown to fight Covid-19 is having an unprecedented impact on the GDP, possibly not seen since independence. Yet, the economic impact is no match to its potential impact on the lives of the people. This is best illustrated by the situation in US which tried to keep its economy rolling, only to find itself in even bigger mess now. Yet, the crisis gives us an opportunity to evaluate where we stand. Here is a guesstimate on the impact of lock-down on GDP based on actual expenditure break-up.<\/p>\n

GDP is classified under three major expenditure heads – Private final consumption expenditure, Gross fixed capital formation or investments and Government final consumption expenditure. Share of the three over last four quarters stands at 58%, 31% and 11% approx. Under business-as-usual scenario, GDP for March\u201920 quarter would have been Rs 38.8 lakh crore (constant price, assuming growth of 5%). While the lockdown was imposed from 24th<\/sup> March (8 days in March\u201920), disruptions had started almost 10 days before that. So, the impact is on Rs 5.1 lakh crore of GDP assuming the economy has suffered equivalent to 12 days of lock-down. The break up of the same under three heads are Rs 3 lakh crore, Rs 1.6 lakh crore and Rs 0.6 lakh crore respectively.<\/p>\n

As per National Accounts Statistics (NAS), food accounts for the largest share of private consumption expenditure at 28% (down from about 40%, 15 years ago). (This group also includes Meat, Eggs, Pan, Tobacco etc). While there has been some additional expenditure on account of food distribution by individuals\/non-governmental agencies, on the whole the expenditure is likely to have come down because of severe disruption in supply-chain and lower consumption of items mentioned above. Consumption is guesstimated at 90%, coming down from Rs 83,000 crore to Rs 75,000 crore during the 12 days. The second big item is purchase of transport equipment and services (transport services includes trains, airlines, auto rickshaws etc) at 16% which has been hit badly. Assuming an 80% decline, expenses on this count would decline from Rs 47,000 crore to just Rs 9,000 crore.<\/p>\n

The third group is rent, electricity, fuel etc, accounting for slightly lower at 14%. This, together with education and communication (accounting for 6%) are assumed to remain same. However, medical services with 5% share may have increased by say, 15% taking it to Rs 17,000 crore. Other items such as clothing, furniture, recreation etc would have come down sharply and is assumed to decline by 90%; or from Rs 1.1 lakh crore to Rs 11,000 crore. This brings total private expenditure for these 12 days down from Rs 3 lakh crore to Rs 1.7 lakh <\/em>crore.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
All figures in lakh crore<\/td>\n<\/td>\nGDP – 12 days<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Item<\/td>\nShare (%)<\/td>\nOriginal<\/td>\n\u00a0After Lockdown<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Private Final Consumption Expenditure<\/td>\n57.8<\/td>\n2.96<\/td>\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.69<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Within this –<\/td>\nFood<\/td>\n28.0<\/td>\n0.83<\/td>\n0.75<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\nTransport<\/td>\n16.0<\/td>\n0.47<\/td>\n0.09<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\nRent, Electricity etc<\/td>\n14.0<\/td>\n0.41<\/td>\n0.41<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\nEducation & Communication<\/td>\n6.0<\/td>\n0.18<\/td>\n0.18<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\nMedical<\/td>\n5.0<\/td>\n0.15<\/td>\n0.17<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\nOthers<\/td>\n31.0<\/td>\n0.92<\/td>\n0.09<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Gross Fixed Capital Formation<\/td>\n30.9<\/td>\n1.58<\/td>\n0.54<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Government Final Consumption Expenditure<\/td>\n11.3<\/td>\n0.58<\/td>\n0.64<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
GDP – 12 days<\/td>\n<\/td>\n5.12<\/td>\n2.87<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
GDP March quarter<\/td>\n<\/td>\n38.8<\/td>\n36.6<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
% Change (Over March’19 quarter)<\/td>\n<\/td>\n5.1%<\/td>\n-0.8%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Data Source – National Accounts of statistics\/ MOSPI<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Addition of all the individual items imply a decline in GDP from Rs 5.1 lakh crore to Rs 2.9 lakh crore during the 12 days of lock-down in March. Factoring this in the quarterly calculation, GDP may decline by about 0.8% against original estimate of 5% during March\u201920 quarter.The next item is Gross fixed capital formation which comprises of construction and machinery & equipment, both accounting for nearly 50%. (Setting up of a factory would also involve significant amount of construction and is dis-aggregated as its dynamics is entirely different from the machinery segment). Within construction, NAS attributes nearly 35% towards manpower cost, which should remain largely unchanged. Assuming 80% decline for the rest, investments would come down from Rs 1.58 lakh crore to Rs 54,000 crore only. The final item is Government final consumption expenditure. While medical & related expenses would have gone up significantly, its share in total expenditure is quite small (with salary, pension, interest payments accounting for over half of the expenses). As a result, total expenditure may not have risen sharply during March. This item is guesstimated to increase by 10%, from Rs 58,000 crore to Rs 64,000 crore.<\/p>\n

However, this is not the complete impact of lock-down. GDP may decline by slightly higher amount during April which is witnessing 14 days of lock-down. For FY21, growth would depend on whether the lock-down ends on 14th<\/sup> April or not and the comprehensiveness of stimulus to be provided by the government to bring economy back on track. An even bigger uncertainty is how soon the global economy comes back on track. It would be tempting at this stage to gauge the impact on sectoral GVA. However, in the absence of data from industry’s side, that is not being attempted to avoid wild guess.<\/p>\n

Note \u2013 Article is a theoretical exercise based on assumptions and not on any hard data. Yet, it provides the conceptual background. The reader may put-in her\/his own figures\/assumptions to refine the results.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The lockdown to fight Covid-19 is having an unprecedented impact on the GDP, possibly not seen since independence. Yet, the economic impact is no match to its potential impact on the lives of the people. This is best illustrated by the situation in US which tried to keep its economy rolling, only to find itself […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":14095,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[857],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-14094","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","membership-content","access-restricted"],"yoast_head":"\nCovid-19 - Estimating the Impact on GDP - Indian Economy & Business Analysis<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.indiaeconomyandbusiness.com\/is\/covid-19-estimating-the-impact-of-gdp\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Covid-19 - Estimating the Impact on GDP - Indian Economy & Business Analysis\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The lockdown to fight Covid-19 is having an unprecedented impact on the GDP, possibly not seen since independence. 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